Paul the Octopus in brief

Paul the Octopus (hatched January 2008) is a common octopus living in a tank at a Sea Life Centre in Oberhausen, Germany, who is used as an animal oracle to predict the results of football matches, usually international matches in which Germany is playing. He came to worldwide attention with his accurate predictions in the 2010 World Cup.

During a divination, Paul is presented with two boxes containing food, each marked with the flag of a national football team in an upcoming match. He chose the box with the flag of the winning team in several of Germany's six Euro 2008 matches, and in all seven of their matches in the 2010 World Cup—with Germany's third place playoff win over Uruguay on 10 July, his success rate rose to 85 percent, with 11 out of 13 matches correctly predicted. He has predicted a win for Spain against the Netherlands in the World Cup final on 11 July by eating the mussel in the box with the Spanish flag on it.[1]

Paul in his tank
 
Results involving Germany Germany

Opponent Tournament Stage Date Prediction Result Outcome
 Poland Euro 2008 group stage 8 June 2008 Germany 2–0 Correct
 Croatia Euro 2008 group stage 12 June 2008 Germany[2][21] 1–2 Incorrect
 Austria Euro 2008 group stage 16 June 2008 Germany 1–0 Correct
 Portugal Euro 2008 quarter-finals 19 June 2008 Germany 3–2 Correct
 Turkey Euro 2008 semi-finals 25 June 2008 Germany 3–2 Correct
 Spain Euro 2008 final 29 June 2008 Germany[2] 0–1 Incorrect
 Australia World Cup 2010 group stage 13 June 2010 Germany[30] 4–0 Correct
 Serbia World Cup 2010 group stage 18 June 2010 Serbia[30] 0–1 Correct
 Ghana World Cup 2010 group stage 23 June 2010 Germany[30] 1–0 Correct
 England World Cup 2010 round of 16 27 June 2010 Germany[31] 4–1 Correct
 Argentina World Cup 2010 quarter-finals 3 July 2010 Germany[24] 4–0 Correct
 Spain World Cup 2010 semi-finals 7 July 2010 Spain[32] 0–1 Correct
 Uruguay World Cup 2010 3rd place play-off 10 July 2010 Germany[33] 3–2 Correct

Potential biases

Roquain goes on to admit that chance is not necessarily the only explanation for Paul's choices. He could be choosing boxes systematically—if not on the basis of football expertise, then perhaps on his evaluation of the countries' flags or the food offered.[11]

The species Octopus vulgaris is almost certainly color blind; neither behavioral studies nor electroretinogram experiments show any discrimination of a colour's hue.[12][13] Nonetheless, individuals can distinguish brightness as well as an object's size, shape, and orientation. Shelagh Malham of Bangor University states that they are drawn to horizontal shapes, and indeed, there are horizontal stripes on the flags he has chosen. The flag of Germany, a bold tricolour consisting of three equal horizontal bands of black, red and gold, is Paul's usual favorite. But the flag of Spain, with its broad yellow stripe, and the flag of Serbia, with its contrast of blue and white, are more vivid still, possibly explaining why Paul picked those countries over Germany.[12] Fey suggested that Paul was confused by the similarities between the German and Spanish flags; this was on July 6, when Fey expressed hope that Paul's latest pick would be wrong.[14]

Matthew Fuller, the senior aquarist at the Weymouth park where Paul was born, judged the flag-shape theory to be plausible: "[Octopuses] are the most intelligent of all the invertebrates and studies have shown they are able to distinguish shapes and patterns so maybe he's able to recognise flags."[15] Vyacheslav Bisikov, a Russian biologist, agrees that it is possible for an octopus to become attracted to a striped flag.[16] Drosos Koutsoubos, a marine biologist at the University of the Aegean, is more cautious: "Well, I'm not a specialist in the behavior of octopuses and I can't give you with certainty an answer to this particular question. At least to my knowledge, it's rather a matter of random selection rather than any other selection."[17] Pascal Coutant, director of the La Rochelle Aquarium, puts it more emphatically: "It's complete chance that guides his choices."[18]

Octopus vulgaris is also equipped with sensitive chemoreceptors on its tentacles, which are used to taste food and "smell" the water. Biologist Volker Miske, of the University of Greifswald, suggests that minor chemical differences on the surface of each box might account for Paul's decisions.[19] Bisikov states that Paul could be "easily trained" to choose the right box by smell.[16] According to Paul's keepers, there are holes in the jars to help him choose.[20]

Theories of his behavior could be systematically tested if Paul were to repeat his selection many times, but he only selects one box per game.[19] A scientific experiment would be more vigilant towards sources of bias, including the flag visuals and potential differences in the preparation of the food.[11]